Tag Archives: politics

Move Aside, Gallup, Zip It, Zogby – Leave It to Twitter

Hardly a day passes without a new survey from national pollsters reflecting our changing attitudes about Barrack Obama and Mitt Romney. With more than five months to the general election, this is already getting tiresome — even to a bit of a political junkie.

Several months ago, during the heat of the Republican primary season, one research organization attempted to measure the candidates’ use of social media to pick a winner. In hindsight, the results were very inconclusive at best.

But undeterred, another group has compared Obama’s and Romney’s Twitter-only following. Here’s a look at some of the results.

  • Obama has almost 16 million Twitter followers, while Romney counts just over 500,000. Nearly half of the Obama followers live outside of the country. About 90 percent of Romney’s live in the U.S.
  • About seven of 10 Romney followers are men. Obama’s followers are split fairly evenly between the sexes.
  • Based on percentages, Romney followers are wealthier. Obama’s are younger.
  • The top industries represented by Obama’s followers are hospitality, law and marketing/PR. Romney draws more support from followers employed in the fields of software, insurance and fashion.
  • The influence of each candidate’s followers (as judged by connections across 60 social media sites) give a clear edge to Obama with a “pull” measurement of 5,461, compared to Romney followers and their 466 rating. Yet while Obama has about 30 times the number of followers, they only have about 12 times more pull than Romney’s.

There is even more detail in the report, including a look at swing state followers. So what does this all mean? How do these numbers translate into electability?  I doubt anyone can say with certainty. But it does provide us with one more set of statistics to debate.

But before we learn the winner on Nov. 6, I think we’ll all be begging for relief.

– JD

Twitter: @Jdaum

The Candidate Has Taken The Lead by 25 Tweets

Image courtesy of Mediabistro.com

We’re a nation that likes to handicap our competitive events.  But before we drop a few bucks on our favorite sports team or Oscar-nominated actress, we need as much information as we can get.  That also holds true before placing a bet on who’ll be our next president.

In the political arena, we follow how much money candidates raise, the major endorsements they secure and the amount of media coverage they receive. Daily polls report on who’s up and who’s down. But for a true political junkie, that’s not nearly enough.

One research firm wanted to find out if a candidate’s use of social media can predict election success.  The group took at look at Twitter activities of the four remaining Republican presidential candidates heading into the March 8 Super Tuesday primaries in 10 states.  Looking at the “positive sentiment” of tweets for each candidate during the six days between Feb. 26-March 2, the researchers predicted winners for each primary.

In hindsight, this is still a work in progress. The firm did pick the winners in Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, Ohio and Virginia.  But it missed in Alaska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Vermont.

That social media is playing a significant role in this election is indisputable.  Campaign spinmeisters are tweeting even before a debate or news conference has ended.  And it’s not just Twitter getting all the political action.

Mitt Romney leads his challengers with Facebook, attracting more than 1.5 million likes.  Ron Paul is the king of YouTube with more than 10 million views of his videos.  And Newt Gingrich claims 1.4 million followers on Twitter — easily the most among this group.

But the Republicans are in trouble if these numbers have any meaning in predicting our next president.  President Barrack Obama has 24.5 million Facebook likes, 173 million YouTube views and 12.8 million Twitter followers.

We’ll see what it all means come November.  But in the meantime, as the media looks to fill its 24-hour news cycle, we might as well know how “social” our candidates are.

– JD

Twitter: @Jdaum